摘要
出口波动在很大程度上会影响到一国或一个地区的短期经济稳定与长期经济增长,中国的出口波动受诸多因素的影响。基于省际面板数据对中国出口波动的影响因素进行的实证研究发现:出口商品集中度的提高加剧了中国的出口波动,出口产品结构的优化以及贸易开放度的提高有助于平抑中国的出口波动,加工贸易的发展则不利于中国出口贸易的稳定增长。从政策含义上看,解决中国生产和出口多样化发展动力不足的问题,促进出口商品的多样化发展,同时继续推进产业结构升级战略,提升贸易开放水平并实现贸易方式的转变,对于中国出口贸易的稳定增长具有重要的意义。
Export fluctuations, to a large extent, influence short-term economic stability and long-term economic growth in certain countries or regions. China＇ s export fluctuations are influenced by many factors. It is discovered through our empirical study, on the basis of inter-provincial panel data, of the factors for China＇s export fluctuations, that export commodity concentration ratio is an important factor that exacerbates the volatility of China~ export; that the optimization of the structure of export products and trade openness help stabilize China~ export fluctuations ; and that processing trade is not conducive to the steady growth of China＇ s export. The study concludes that, from the perspective of policy implications, it is of paramount importance for the steady growth of China＇ s export to solve the problem of insufficient impetus for the diver- sification of Chinese products and export so as to boost export diversification, and in the meantime, to continue to push for- ward the strategy of upgrading China＇ s industrial structures and enhance trade openness along with the transformation of trade models.
出处
《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第1期37-45,共9页
Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)
基金
厦门大学国际经济与贸易系教育发展基金(201112106)项目课题的阶段性研究成果
关键词
出口波动
出口商品集中度
出口产品结构
贸易开放
省际面板数据
export fluctuations
export commodity concentration ratio
structure of export commodities
trade open-ness
inter-provincial panel data
作者简介
张明志，男，福建仙游人，厦门大学国际经济与贸易系教授、博士生导师；
林娟，女，福建莆田人，厦门大学国际经济与贸易系博士研究生。
