摘要
建筑业作为我国国民经济的支柱产业,分析其现状并预测其发展趋势对指导行业发展、做好宏观调控等具有重要意义。本文结合固定资产投资规模,应用差分法分析了中国建筑业现状,揭示了"十一五"期间建筑业发展变化较大,这主要是受2008年底国家"4万亿"投资计划的影响。根据2001～2010年的历史数据,分别应用灰色模型和时间序列分析对"十二五"期间建筑业总产值及增加值进行了预测。经与2011年建筑业总产值和增加值的实际数据比较,灰色模型预测值较时间序列预测值更为接近实际值。这两种方法的预测结果均表明,"十二五"期间建筑业将迎来更大发展空间、进入高速发展阶段。因此,建筑业必须加快产业结构调整,加强技术创新,以实现健康、可持续发展。
The construction industry is the mainstay industry of national economy,and it is necessary to review the situation of China construction industry and to make the development trend forecast of China construction industry,which is useful to guide China construction industry and the macro-economic control.According to the scale of the investment in fixed assets and the result of difference method,the author makes a brief description of current China construction industry.Because of the 4 billion investment plan,enormous changes have taken place in China construction industry in the period of the eleventh five-year plan.This paper is to explore the use of gray model and time series analysis in forecasting the output and the added value of China construction industry in the period of the twelfth five-year plan,based on the data covering 2001 to 2010.The predictive value of the output and the added value of 2010 China construction industry by gray model is closer to the actual value than time series analysis.Both of forecasting methods show that China construction industry will get a rapid growth in the period of the twelfth five-year plan.In order to obtain sustainable development,the construction industry should further adjust industrial structure and strengthen the leading function of technical progress and innovation.
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
2012年第4期84-88,共5页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
基金
住建部科学技术项目计划(2012-R3-2)
华中科技大学自主创新基金(2011 TS 168)
关键词
建筑业
发展趋势
灰色模型
时间序列分析
差分法
construction industry
development trend
difference method
gray model
time series analysis
作者简介
唐菁菁（1972-），女，贵州贵阳人，讲师，博士研究生，研究方向为建筑经济管理（Email：tjj97@126．com）
