摘要
在介绍常用的负荷预测准确性评估方法以及有关电力主管部门制定的统一的负荷预测准确性考核标准基础上,通过算例对各评估方法进行了分析比较,指出各评估方法的优缺点及其存在的问题。认为后验差评估方法不够完善,小误差概率指标不能起到很好的评估约束作用;考核指标相同时,日合格点百分数比负荷预测准确性的考核标准更为严格。
On the basis of introducing common accuracy assessment method unified load forecast accuracy assessment standard of relevant electric power competent authorities, the paper comparatively analyzes various assessment method by means of examples and points out merits and demerits of each assessment and existing problems. It believes that posterior variance method is far from perfection and small error probability index can not favorably perform assessment restraints; In case of same assessment index, daily qualification percentage is stricter than assessment standard of load forecast accuracy.
出处
《广东电力》
2012年第11期39-42,共4页
Guangdong Electric Power
关键词
负荷预测
准确性
评估方法
load forecast
accuracy
assessment method
作者简介
作者简介：王干军（1978），男，广西都安人。工程师，工学学士，主要从事城市供用电方面的工作。
