中国核心通货膨胀的SVAR模型估计与政策应用被引量：23

The Estimation of China's Core Inflation Based on SVAR Model and Policy Application

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摘要本文主要通过对Quah和Vahey的两变量结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型进行扩展,建立了包括产出、通货膨胀、货币供应量和食品价格的四变量SVAR模型来估计中国的核心通货膨胀率。根据估计出的核心通货膨胀率,分析我国核心通货膨胀的特征,说明我国的核心通货膨胀确实能更好地反映通货膨胀潜在的长期趋势。在政策方面,强调中央银行在制定和实施货币政策时,要适度关注核心CPI的变化,从而使货币政策在保持长期物价稳定的同时,可以控制短期的通货膨胀,实现动态平衡。 The paper estimated China＇s core inflation rate through the SVAR model. Extended from Quah and Vahey＇s （1995） two-variable SVAR model, it establishes a four-variable SVAR model, including output, inflation, money supply and food prices. According to the results, the characteristics of core inflation in China, shows that core inflation is indeed better in judging the underlying long-term trend of inflation. The results suggests that the central bank should pay attention to core CPI moderately when formulating and implementing monetary policy, therefore the monetary policy can maintain a dynamic balance between a long-term price stability and a short time inflation control.

作者田新民武晓婷

机构地区首都经济贸易大学经济学院中国农业银行山西省分行

出处《中国工业经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第12期5-17,共13页 China Industrial Economics

基金国家社会科学基金重大项目"正确处理经济平稳较快发展调整经济结构管理通胀预期的关系研究"(批准号12&ZD038) 国家社会科学基金项目"理性疏忽粘性信息与通货膨胀预期形成机制研究"(批准号12BJL023)

关键词通货膨胀核心通货膨胀 SVAR模型货币政策 inflation core inflation SVAR model monetary policy

分类号 F124.1 [经济管理—世界经济]

作者简介田新民（1967-），男，山西稷山人，首都经济贸易大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，博士；武晓婷（1988-），女，山西稷山人，中国农业银行山西省分行营业部工作人员。

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参考文献21

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