摘要
利用WCRP的耦合模式比较计划-阶段3的多模式数据(CMIP3数据),模拟分析基于A2、A1B、B1排放情景下华中区域2011—2100年平均气温的可能变化,结果表明,模式模拟的结果可较好地反映出气温线性变化趋势。模拟冬季增温速率略高于夏季,但夏季增温速率与观测序列呈相反变化趋势;总体能模拟出华中区域气温线性趋势的空间分布特征,但模拟数值偏高。3种情景下21世纪末华中区域平均气温的增幅(相对于1961—1990年)分别为3.7、3.4、2.0℃。21世纪中叶前夏季增幅大于冬季,21世纪末冬季增幅大于夏季;两个时间段内春、秋季基本一致。
Using the multimodel data in Phase 3 of the WCRP＇s Coupled Model Project, the average air temperatures over cen- tral China in 2011 - 2100 was simulated based on the SRES A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, and their variation characteristics were analysised. In summary, the simulations could better reflect the linear trends of the temperatures. The simulated warming rate in winter was slightly higher than in summer, while the change trend in the rate of summer warming was opposite to that in the observation sequence. The spatial distribution of the linear trends could be well simulated but with the values higher than ob- servations. Compared with the average over the period from 1961 to 1990, the warming increment in the 21st century was 3.7 ℃ for A2, 3.4 ℃ for A1B and 2.0 ℃ for B1, respectively. Before the mid-21st century, the warming increment in sum- mer was higher than in winter, followed by the bigger increment in winter than in summer until the end of the 21st century with the ones in spring and in autumn being consistent for the two periods.
出处
《气象学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期1098-1106,共9页
Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-2010-04)
作者简介
任永建，从事气候变化诊断与分析研究。Email：ryj407@163．com
通信作者：万素琴，从事气候变化诊断与分析研究。Email：ycwcq@sohu．com
