摘要
根据实物期权理论,提出了基于等待期权溢价比率指标的项目群优选排序方法,适用于在利润最大化的总体目标下,解决逻辑顺序不明确的子项目的排序问题。该方法通过考虑推迟子项目执行时间给决策者带来的额外价值,将等待期权溢价与投资成本比值作为排序的客观依据,解决了传统排序方法无法摆脱决策者主观判断影响的问题。最后,应用该排序方法,对产业新城开发时序决策进行了案例分析。
According to the theory of real option, this paper presents a new method for program sequence arrangement from comparing the option premium ratio for waiting, i.e. waiting for option premium to be divided by investment cost. This method is suitable to solve the subprojects scheduling problems that cannot be arranged by logical sequence aiming at profit maximization. Based on the premium value from postponing investment decisions, the novel method set up an objective standard, while traditional sequence evaluation methods cannot be get rid of the influence of decision makers＇ subjective attitude. At the end of this paper, the development sequence arrangement for an industrial town is presented as a case study.
出处
《工程管理学报》
2012年第3期51-55,共5页
Journal of Engineering Management
关键词
项目群
实物期权
期权溢价比率
时序评价
排序方法
program
real option
option premium ratio
sequence evaluation： ranking method
作者简介
刘洪玉（1962-），男，教授，博士生导师，研究方向：房地产经济与管理，房地产金融与投资；
杨帆（1986-），女，博士研究生，研究方向：房地产经济与管理。E-mail：f-yang09@mails．tsinghua．edu．cn
