摘要
预期对房地产行业调控政策的实施效果有着重要的作用。一般来说,从形成机制可以把预期分为静态预期、外推型预期、适应性预期和理性预期,而我国的房地产市场因其特殊性,是介于适应性预期与理性预期之间的准理性预期。通过建立住房价格调控模型并进行实证分析后,可以发现准理性预期是一种效果较好且与实际更相符的预期;预期是影响房价的最主要因素,而预期对于房价的放大效应和预期的不稳定性又使得政策调控增加了一定的难度;房价基本上与预期成正比关系。
Eexpectation plays a very important role in affecting the result of our domestic real estate market macro-control policy.From the aspect of formation mechanism,expectation can be categorized into static expectation,extrapolation expectation,adaptive expectation,and rational expectation.However,due to its particularity,expectation category of domestic real estate market is between adaptive expectation and rational expectation,i.e.quasi rational expectation.By establishing a housing price macro-control model and conducting positive analysis,it is concluded that quasi rational expectation is effective and meets with the reality.Expectation is the most important factor of affecting housing prices,and it magnifies price fluctuation and it is unstable so that the macro-control is even harder.Basically,housing price is direct proportion to expectation,and is most fragile to public expectation among all influencing factors.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第6期63-67,共5页
Urban Problems
关键词
预期理论
准理性预期
预期模型
实证分析
rational expectation theory
quasi rational expectation
expectation model
positive analysis
作者简介
薛志勇（1973-），男，河北滦南人，中国科技大学管理学院博士研究生，研究方向为投资经济及房地产管理。
