摘要
为探讨财政农业投入与农民收入的关系,根据1978～2006年经济数据,利用协整理论分析了财政支农与农民收入的关系,并得到了计量回归模型,回归结果表明,支援农业生产和各项农业事业费、农业科技三项费用对增加农民收入起到有利作用,而农业基本建设支出和农村救济费阻碍了农民收入增加。然后对变量间的脉冲响应进行分析,结果表明,支持农业生产和各项农业事业费的支出变化对农民纯收入有正的冲击,并且从第2年开始冲击越来越大;农业基本建设支出和农村救济费开始反应为正,持续到将近第3年发生波动;农业科技三项费用对农民收入的脉冲响应开始为负,并持续了大约5个时期,然后才转为正的冲击。最后结合我国财政支农的一些特征,得出我国财政支农的规模、比重以及结构严重不合理的结论。
On the basis of economic data from 1978 to 2006,the co-integration theory is applied to discuss the relation between agricultural financial investment and farmers＇ income.The statistic AR model is obtained.Then,it makes pulse response analysis in combination with principle of pulse response analysis.The regression results show that support in agricultural production,various agricultural operating expenditure and three types of costs for agricultural science and technology are favorable to farmers＇ income,while expenditure in agricultural capital construction and rural relief costs hinder increase of farmers＇ income.The results of pulse response analysis indicate that the change in support of agricultural production and various agricultural operating expenditures have positive impact on farmers＇ net income,and the impact is greater and greater from the second year;the response of expenditure in agricultural capital construction and rural relief cost is positive in the beginning and starts to fluctuate from the third year;the pulse response of three types of costs for agricultural science and technology is negative,lasts about five periods,and then turns to positive impact.Finally,combining characteristics of China＇s financial support for agriculture,it concludes that the scale,proportion and structure of financial support for agriculture are quite improper.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2012年第11期6808-6811,共4页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
财政支农
农民收入
协整理论
脉冲响应分析
Financial support for agriculture
Farmers＇ income
Co-integration theory
Pulse response analysis
作者简介
何海（1978-），男，贵州贵定人，硕士，副教授，从事经济统计研究，E—mail：hehai68@sina．com。
