摘要
快速准确的导弹轨道预测是有效进行导弹防御的前提。提出一种基于IMM-EKF的弹道导弹轨道实时动态预测方法,对导弹发射点和落点分别进行动态预测研究。首先,构建不包含导弹先验信息的IMM-EKF弹道估计器;其次,定义一种模型概率累积因子,用于估计导弹的关机时刻及相应的运动状态;最后,基于导弹运动状态的实时估计,动态预测落点和发射点。仿真实验结果表明:该方法能实时动态预测导弹发射点和落点;发射点预测应利用主动段状态估计,而落点预测则在导弹自由段早期进行为宜。
The quick and accurate prediction of missile trajectory is the precondition of missile effective defense.A novel real-time and dynamical prediction method of ballistic missile trajectory with IMM-EKF was proposed to predict the missile＇s launch point and impact point.First,an IMM-EKF trajectory estimator with no missile priori information was constructed;next,a model probability accumulation factor was defined,which is used in estimating missile＇s engine burnout time and its corresponding state;finally,based on missile motion state estimation in real-time,the location of launch point and impact point are dynamically predicted.The simulation experiment results show that this method can effectively predict the launch point and impact point in real-time,and launch point prediction should use the missile state estimation in boost phase,while the impact point prediction is better carried on in the missile free early phase.
出处
《火力与指挥控制》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期26-30,34,共6页
Fire Control & Command Control
基金
国家自然科学基金(60634030)
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(60702066)
关键词
IMM-EKF
弹道估计
累积因子
轨道动态预测
IMM-EKF
trajectory estimation
accumulation factor
trajectory dynamic prediction
作者简介
刘彦伟（1985-）。男，河北邢台人，硕士研究生，研究方向：导弹预警。
