摘要
50年代兴起的证券市场传统技术分析理论 ,一直被认为缺乏一个坚实的理论基础。技术分析有效至少需要以下两个条件之一 :投资者并不是完全的理性人 ;或者使用技术分析具有垄断性。而正态性假定的限制说明利用技术分析获取的收益极不稳定 ,而且很可能只是一种巧合和运气。到了 90年代 ,技术分析理论再次兴起 ,新理论采用了混沌理论和其他非线性研究方法。混沌理论放弃了理性人假定和正态性假定 ,但技术分析同样难以建立在混沌理论基础上 ,技术分析的理论根基在本质上极其脆弱 。
Since the traditional technology analysis theory boomed in the 1950s, it has been figured out that technology analysis has suffered from a deficiency of a solid theoretical foundation. Technology analysis come into effect only in the condition that investor is less-than-rational human being, or investor must have a monopoly of using technology analysis. The limitation of normal distribution assumption confirms that profit from technology analysis is not stabilized and may appear fortunately and occasionally. In the 1990s, technology analysis has thrived in western countries once again, the modern theory is employing chaos theory and other non-liner science. Chaos theory has abandoned many assumptions such as rational investor, normal distribution, et al. However, unfortunately, technology analysis is also difficult to base on chaos theory. So the foundation of technology analysis is extraordinarily frangible in essence and technology analysis has limitation for investment reference.
关键词
证券市场
技术分析
博弈论
混沌理论
中国
Securities Market
Technology Analysis
Game Theory
Chaos Theory
