摘要
银行信贷作为房地产开发投资的重要资金来源,可能通过内生增长的形式表现出乘数效应,使得开发投资总量快速增长.通过建立状态空间模型对房地产开发投资中银行信贷资金的乘数效应进行了实证检验,结果表明房地产信贷的乘数效应确实存在;并利用历史数据对乘数大小进行了估计,测算了乘数效应的收敛时间.基于模型结果对我国银行信贷调控政策的有效性进行了检验和分析,结果表明我国的紧缩性信贷调控政策对房地产开发投资有显著影响,而刺激性信贷调控政策对房地产开发投资的影响并不显著.
As an important source to the total real estate investment, real estate loan may have multiplier effect through endogenous growth, which can lead to a over fast growth of real estate investment. This paper tests whether the multiplier effect really exists by establishing a state space model. And the result confirms the existence of the multiplier effect. An empirical measurement of the multiplier and its convergence time is performed using historical data. Besides, this paper analyzes the influence of the loan policy, and leads to the conclusion that loan retrenchment policies have significant influences on the amount of real estate loan, while stimulating policies don＇t have any significant influences.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期640-646,共7页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(70807058
70971052)
关键词
房地产信贷
乘数效应
状态空间模型
信贷调控
real estate loan
multiplier effect
state space model
loan regulation
作者简介
张戈，男，博士研究生，研究方向：金融数学与金融管理。
王珏，副研究员，研究方向：智能计算与经济预测。
汪寿阳，男，研究员，博士生导师，研究方向：金融管理，决策分析与经济预测等。
