摘要
2010年ECFA的签署标志着两岸经贸合作关系将进一步深化。本文根据1990—2009年20年两岸的进出口贸易数据和台湾就业人数的变化,利用协整检验、脉冲函数和方差分解的实证研究,认为两岸贸易短期内能较明显促进台湾就业人数的增加,长期的拉动效应减弱,总体上两岸贸易有利于台湾的失业率下降。
The signing of ECFA in 2010 marks the deepening of the cross-strait trade cooperation relationship. Based on the data of cross-strait trade and the change in Taiwan＇s employment figure from 1990 to 2009, this paper employs cointegretion test, impulse response function and variance analysis to make an empirical study. It shows that the cross-strait trade has an significantly positive effect on the employment level in Taiwan in the short term and the positive effect weakens in the long term, so cross-strait trade is beneficial to the reduction in the unemployment level in Taiwan as a whole.
出处
《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期92-97,共6页
Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
关键词
两岸贸易
台湾就业
VAR模型
cross-strait trade
employment in Taiwan VAR model
作者简介
陈心颖（1974-），女，福建泉州人，中共福建省委党校经济学教研部副教授。
