摘要
在以往研究成果基础上,基于采集获取的实时车辆定位信息,提出了一种基于前车的公交车辆到站时间动态预测模型。在建立路段行程时间计算模型时考虑了前车的平均瞬时速度,在计算站点区域停留时间时建立了基于前车的预测模型,提出了一种参数容易获取、便于实际计算的模型,用于预测公交车辆在信号控制交叉口的延误。用上海市58路公交车的GPS数据对预测模型进行了验证,结果表明预测模型具有较高的预测精度,能够较为准确地预测公交车辆到站时间。
A model that predicts the bus arrival time dynamically based on the front bus is putting forward by studying real-time GPS data and previous research achievements. The average instantaneous velocity of the front bus is considered when computing the road section travel time. The author builds the at-stop dwell time prediction model based on the front bus and GPS data, replacing previous research methods mainly based on the average of investigation data. A practical model is given out to predict the bus delay of signalized intersection. The GPS data of bus route 58 in Shanghai is used for testing the model, and the results indicate that the precision of the prediction model is high, it can be used to predict the bus arrival time accurately.
出处
《交通与运输》
2011年第B12期52-56,共5页
Traffic & Transportation
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(60974093)
关键词
公共交通
GPS数据
到站时间预测
Public transportation
GPS data
Arrival time prediction
作者简介
周雪梅（1968-），吉林人，同济大学副教授，博士，主要研究方向：交通运输规划与管理。
