摘要
针对2007年夏季淮河流域致洪暴雨,笔者采用美国NCEP/NCAR全球日平均分析场资料,对此次过程进行了详细地分析。Morlet小波分析结果表明:降水存在准35天、准18天和准8天周期变化现象。准35天周期低频降水从西南传播至淮河流域南部,另一方面从西北方向传播至淮河流域中南部;南海为低频降水传播源地也很清楚。降水的周期愈短,传播特征愈不明显。200hPa与850hPa水平散度差与降水有很好的对应关系,水平散度差>0(<0)对应降水区域(无降水区域),降水的传播与水平散度差基本一致。200hPa与850hPa水平散度差是不同时间尺度地面降水的预报因子。
The research on the heavy rainfall causing the flood Huaihe River basin during May to August in 2007 was focused on,using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis day-to-day data,the distribution and propagation features of multi-time scale precipitation over Huaihe River basin in the summer of 2007 were investigated.Morlet wavelet analysis results showed that there existed periodic change phenomenon of precipitation in quasi-35 days,quasi-18 days and quasi-8 days oscillaation.Periodic low frequency precipitation of quasi-35 days was from southwest propagation to the south of Huaihe River basin,and on the other hand from northwest propagation to the south central Huai River basin;it was aslo clear that Nanhai was the propagation source of low frequency precipitation.The more short period of precipitation,the propagation features was not obvious.It was a very good corresponding relation that between horizontal divergence balance of from 200 hPa with 850 hPa and precipitation,horizontal divergence balance 0 corresponding to precipitation area,and horizontal divergence balance 0 to no precipitation area.The propagation of precipitation was mainly accord to horizontal divergence balance.The between horizontal divergence balance of from 200 hPa with 850 hPa was predictor of multi-time scale precipitation.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第23期276-282,共7页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
中国气象局气象新技术推广项目"基于新一代天气雷达的省级人影业务系统"(CMATG2005M34)
关键词
淮河流域
降水
水平散度差
传播特征
小波分析
Huaihe River basin
precipitation
horizontal divergence balance
propagation
Morlet wavelet analysis
作者简介
吴有训，男，1953年出生，安徽歙县人，高级工程师，本科，主要从事天气气候分析和预报研究。通信地址：242000安徽省宣城市响山路118号安徽省宦城市气象局，Tel：0563—2531013，E—mail：wuyouxtm@yahoo．com．cn
