摘要
针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律:sf(k)=1.48ksc,其中sf(k)和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件(加速性地震活动前兆)预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震(如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等)的回溯性检验分析表明:强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈"大—小—大"型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议:建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段(闭锁区域)判识的地质与地球物理研究等。
Aiming at whether the strong earthquake can be predicted and how to predict,the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system is developed.An exponential law describing the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes（s_f（k）=1.48ks_c） is found where s_f（k） and s_c are cumulative Benioff strain corresponding to the rupture point of the kth locked patch and dilation point of the first locked patch respectively,k is the number of locked patches.In other words,the oncoming strong earthquake can be predicted by utilizing the earthquake swarm events（accelerating seismicity precursor） produced in the dilatancy onset point of locked patch.Furthermore,associated prediction method,including the magnitude,place,critical strain（corresponding to the occurrence time of earthquake）,and the hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake are provided based on this new method.Then many earthquakes（such as Xingtai Earthquake,Haicheng Earthquake,Wenchuan Earthquake,Yushu Earthquake and so on） were retrospectively analyzed.The results indicate that the seismogenic process of strong earthquake obeys a simple mechanic law.The seismogenic mode can be classified into the following four types： large-small-large earthquake magnitude mode in a siesmogenic period,continuously rising large earthquake magnitude mode in an earthquake sequence,quickly and continuously fracturing mode of multiple locked patches,and standard earthquake mode.Moreover,the future research focus in the earthquake relief is also suggested.
出处
《地球科学与环境学报》
CAS
2011年第3期311-316,共6页
Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-113
KZCX2-YW-Q03-02113)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41030750)
关键词
锁固段
强震预测
孕震模式
震群
Weibull分布模型
地震
locked patch
prediction of strong earthquake
seismogenic mode
earthquake swarm event
Weibull distribution model
earthquake
作者简介
作者简介：秦四清（1964-），男，河北行唐人，研究员，从事工程地质与岩土工程研究。E—mail：qsqhope@sohu．com
