摘要
本文利用台风年鉴１９８１～１９９６年的资料，根据灰色灾变预测方法，建立了对上海市及其邻近区域产生严重影响的强台风出现时间的ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型。经过检验，精度达到优级。据此预测，下次侵袭本地区的强台风出现时间为２００１年。同时，用灰色拓扑方法对未来几年上海市及江苏、浙江沿海区域产生 ８级以上大风天气的台风个数进行了逐年预测。
Bsed on the data from the Typhoon Almanac in the period of 1981 to 1996 and gray predictive theory, this paper suggests a GM(1,1)prediction model to be applied om the occurring time of the typhoon which seriously affected Shanghai and its neighboring region. The model. which approved successfully, predicts that the next violent typhoon intruding Shanghai will be on the year of 2001. We also predict the occurrence of strong wind over eight degree (tropical storm)that will affect Shanghai and neighboring region in the future years.
出处
《台湾海峡》
CAS
CSCD
1999年第3期235-238,共4页
Journal of Oceanography In Taiwan Strait
关键词
台风
灰色预测
上海
热带风景
Typhoon,gray predictive theory, Shanghai
