摘要
以浙江省庆元县庆元林场杉木种子园１３ ａ 种子产量系列和影响杉木种子园产量的生物因（Ｘ１～Ｘ３）、气象因子（Ｘ６～Ｘ１４）及立地因子（Ｘ４～Ｘ５）等资料为依据，在应用回归分析方法筛选构成影响产量主导因子的基础上，分别研建了杉木种子园产量的多元线性模型：杉木种子园年度单位面积种子平均产量Ｙ１＝ ６０．０４７ ４６＋ ０．００１ ６７Ｘ７（年降水量）－ ０．１１６ ９５Ｘ８，９（开花期低温指数）－０．０１５ ７９Ｘ１０（开花期降水量）＋ ０．００８ １６Ｘ１２（开花期日照时数）＋ ０．００４ ４４Ｘ１３（高温干旱期降水量）－ ２．２６８ ７２Ｘ１４（７～８月份平均气温）；种子园小区年度种子产量Ｙ２＝ － ６０３．４２７ １０＋ ３４．１４２ ６７Ｘ４（小区坡向）＋ ０．０７２ ２０Ｘ６（≥１０ ℃年积温）＋ ０．０４２ １０Ｘ７－ １８．８９７ ３９Ｘ８，９－ ０．３４９ ４１Ｘ１１（开花期总雨日数）＋ ６．８６４ ７８Ｘ１２＋ ０．９３５ ３１Ｘ１３；种子园小区历年种子均产Ｙ５＝ １．９５７ ７６＋ ２．４３９ ３８Ｘ３１（杉木一般产区无性系）＋ ２．４５７ ８６Ｘ４１（阳坡）＋ １．３００ ００Ｘ５１（土壤肥力“好”）－ ０．０７４ ８８Ｘ５２ （土?
Based on the data of seed yield of Chinese Fir Seed Orchard in Qingyuan Forest Farm from 1981～1993 and the biological factors( X 1～X 3 ),meteorological factors( X 6～X 14 ) and site factors ( X 4～X 5 ) affecting the seed yield of Chinese fir seed orchard,the multi unit linear patterns were established by using linear regression to determine the key factors affecting seed yield:the annual mean yield per unit area Y 1=60.047 46+0.001 67X 7 (annual precipitation)-0.116 95 X 8,9 (low temperature index in flowering period)-0.015 79 X 10 (precipitation in flowering period)+0.008 16 X 12 (sunshine time in flowering period)+0.004 44 X 13 (precipitation in high temperature and drought period)-2.268 72 X 14 (mean temperature in July and August);the annual seed yield in seed orchard plot Y 2=-603.427 10+34.142 67X 4 (slope orientation)+0.072 20 X 6 (≥10 ℃ annual accumulated temperature)+0.042 10 X 7-18.897 39X 8,9 -0.349 41X 11 (rainy days in flowering period)+6.864 78 X 12 +0.935 31X 13 ;the annual mean seed yield in the plot of seed orchard Y 5=1.957 76+2.439 38X 31 (C.lanceloata clones in general production area)+2.457 86 X 41 (sunny slope)+1.300 00 X 51 (good soil fertility)-0.074 88 X 52 (middle soil fertility).The rate of calculation accuracy of the models above was 81.04%～95.40%.
出处
《林业科学研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第6期639-644,共6页
Forest Research
基金
"八五"国家攻关项目!(编号:85-18-01-01)
浙江省科委资助!(编号:91-025)
关键词
杉木种子园
种子产量
预测模型
Chinese fir seed orchard
seed yield
calculation model
