摘要
通过多变量Prob it模型考察我国农村贫困居民的收入流动性。分析两期之间农村贫困的状态依赖性,探讨决定我国农村居民当期免于贫困的因素,研究发现:人力资本投资中的教育投资和健康投资的反贫困效果最好;从贫困的状态依赖性来看,我国农村低收入者没有陷入明显的持续贫困,收入流动性较强;农村女性收入状况逐年改善,婚姻状况有利于缓解贫困,国家公务员或者企业经理,政府机关、国有企事业单位性质的员工陷入贫困的概率更低,东部地区居民容易免于贫困;改革开放的制度变迁给农村居民带来收入变动的机遇,同时也增加了他们收入的不稳定性;回归结果对低收入门槛的定义比较敏感,有必要在收入分布的"绝对贫困"区域上方再划定一个"基本贫困"区域。
This article has discussed the income mobility of the rural poor in China using the multivariate Probit model, and through analysis of the transition of poverty between t - 2 and t, discussed the current antipoverty means for Chinese rural population, our discovery is ： The education investment and health investment have better effect ; From the state dependence of the poverty, Chinese rural low - earning people do not relapse into obviously continuous poverty, and the income mobility is strong; The income of the rural female has improved in recent years and their marriage is helpful to eliminating poverty. While, national public servants, business managers and employees working for government, state - owned business is probably not getting into the poverty. Residents in East China are more likely avoid of poverty for reform and open policy increases the income of rural residents, and also enhances their income instability. The regressing outcome is sensitive to low incoming threshold, and it is necessary to define a ＂basic poverty＂ area on the top of ＂absolute poverty＂ area of income distribution.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期37-46,共10页
Population Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金课题(面上项目):社会资本视角下政府反贫困政策绩效管理的理论与实证研究(70873097)
关键词
收入流动性
低收入者
状态依赖
农村
income mobility, low paid residents, state dependence, rural area
作者简介
周恩静（1975-），男，浙江温州人，西南财经大学经济学院博士研究生，经济师，交通银行总行办公室综合处处长。
胡棋智（1982-），男，湖南双峰人，经济学博士，经济师，中国农业银行总行职员。
