摘要
以发展经济学和新经济增长理论为根据,通过揭示当前我国人口结构即将面临的重大转变———"人口红利窗口期即将关闭"的经济社会特征,提出了未来我国实现"体育、健康、人口、经济增长四位一体协调发展"的理论体系,并在实证研究的基础上,进一步提出了体育事业为我国人口发展和经济增长做出新贡献的战略选择。主要观点包括:第一,由于第一次人口红利优势即将消失,"国民健康"已经成为关系到未来20年中国经济发展潜力的决定性因素之一;第二,在人口不断深入老龄化的背景下作为与"国民健康"直接相关的体育事业,已经不仅仅是以一种产业经济的作用方式对国民经济做出贡献,更转变成一种促进我国人力资本积累、提高全社会劳动生产率的内生性力量;第三,"体育、健康、人口、经济增长四位一体协调发展"是未来我国经济社会发展对体育事业提出的根本要求和变革方向;第四,当前我国体育事业在促进国民健康方面尚面临着投资不足、国民体质下降、运行机制不畅三大严峻问题,无法满足未来发展需要;第五,在2010—2030年这一人口结构转变的关键性历史阶段,我国体育事业必须采取改革措施,确立新的体育战略发展方向。
On the base of economic development and neo-growth economic and through pointing out that our population structure facing significant change,that is the social and economic characteristics during the shutdown of demographic dividend window,this paper gives a new insight to the integrating four factors as one for sports,health,population and economic growth in the future and put forwards the strategy choice that our population development and economic growth should take the current sports cause as a new contribution.The main opinion is as follow：1）Because of the advantage of first demographic dividend disappearing,national health has become the main restricting factor and decisive productive forces in the future of 20 years.2）Under the background of continued aged tendency of population,as the direct relation with national health,China sports cause is by no means of industry economics for contribution on national economics,it has become the internal factor for involving in national human capital increment and promoting the labor productivity.3） The coordinated development model of sports,health,population and economics is the basic requirement and reform direction of our future economic and social development on sport cause.4） Current sports cause in China in promoting national health faces the underinvestment,fitness declining and poor mechanism and can not meet the demand of future development.5） In the key historical phase of population structure changing from 2010 to 2030,our sports cause should take reform measures and set up the new sports development strategy direction.
出处
《体育科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期10-18,共9页
China Sport Science
基金
国家软科学研究计划(2010GXS5B144)
国家体育总局体育科学研究所基本科研业务费资助项目(09-03)
关键词
人口红利
体育
发展战略
中国
demographic dividend
sports
development strategy
China
作者简介
杨越（1975-），男，满族，山东青岛人，副研究员，博士，Tel：（010）87182597，Email：yangcomplex@126．com
