摘要
Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial global-mean temperature series.The three long-term periods of the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),Little Ice Age(LIA) and recent Global Warming Period(GWP) were distinct in the temperature series.21-year,65-year,115-year and 200-year oscillations were derived from the temperature series after removing three long-term climatic temperatures.The phases of temperature oscillations significantly lagged behind oceanic SST and solar radiation variability.The recent decadal warm period was caused by the quasi-21-year temperature oscillation.At this century-cross period,the four oscillations reached their peaks simultaneously,which did not occur during the last millennium.Based on the long-term trend during the GWP and the four periodic oscillations,global-mean temperature is expected to drop to a new cool period in the 2030s and then a rising trend would be towards to a new warm period in the 2060s.
Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature （SST） index were used to analyze their causality relation- ship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial global-mean temperature series. The three long-term periods of the Medieval Warm Period （MWP）, Little Ice Age （LIA） and recent Global Warming Period （GWP） were distinct in the tempera- ture series. 21-year, 65-year, 115-year and 200-year oscillations were derived from the temperature series after removing three long-term climatic temperatures. The phases of temperature oscillations significantly lagged behind oceanic SST and solar radia- tion variability. The recent decadal warm period was caused by the quasi-21-year temperature oscillation. At this century-cross period, the four oscillations reached their peaks simultaneously, which did not occur during the last millennium. Based on the long-term trend during the GWP and the four periodic oscillations, global-mean temperature is expected to drop to a new cool period in the 2030s and then a rising trend would be towards to a new warm period in the 2060s.
作者简介
Corresponding author （email： qianwh@pku.edu.cn）
