摘要
利用伊宁市气象台1952-2006年观测资料,采用数理统计、回归分析、趋势分析、滑动平均、滑动t检验等方法,分析伊宁市气温和降水的变化特征与趋势。结果显示:55年来,伊宁市气温在波动中呈显著上升趋势,年均气温线性倾向率为0.39℃/10a,明显高于全国、西北地区、中国天山山区、新疆策勒和莎车绿洲的变化速率;年均及四季气温的线性趋势均可通过α=0.01水平的相关显著性检验。55年来,伊宁市年降水量也在波动中呈明显上升趋势,年降水量线性倾向率为12.3mm/10a,这与我国年降水量以-2.66mm/10a的速度减少、中国天山山区年降水量变化不存在显著的线性变化趋势的结论相反,与近50年西北干旱地区降水量变化有增加趋势的结论相一致,并且明显高于西北干旱区和莎车绿洲的变化速率,说明伊宁市气候的湿润化趋势比较明显。滑动t检验结果表明,伊宁市年平均气温分别在1978年、1987年和1997年由低到高发生突变,20世纪70年代中后期是气温明显由冷向暖转变的分界点;年降水量在1985年由少向多发生突变,20世纪80年代中后期是降水量明显由干枯向湿润转变的分界点。对55年气温和降水变化趋势的分析均证实,自20世纪80年代中后期开始,伊宁市气候已由暖干向暖湿转变,这种变化90年代中后期更加强烈和显著。
This paper analyzes the characteristics and change trend of air temperature and precipitation in Yining City based on the temperature and precipitation data observed at Yining Meteorological Station during the period from 1952 to 2005 using the methods of mathematical statistics,trend analysis,moving average analysis and moving test. The results show that,in recent 55 years,the mean annual temperature in this city was in an increase trend,and the increasing rate was 0. 39 ℃ per decade,which was distinctly higher than that in whole China and northwest China as well as the Tianshan Mountains,Qira Oasis and Shache County of Xinjiang. Change trend of both annual and seasonal temperatures passes the significance test at level of α = 0. 01,which proves that Yining City is one of the regions sensitive to climate warming in China. In recent 55 years,annual precipitation in the city was also in an obvious increase trend,and the average increasing rate was 12. 3 mm per decade,which was opposite to the conclusion that ＂the annual precipitation of our country is decreasing by the rate of-2. 66 mm/10 a,and there isn＇t a clear change trend in the area of Tianshan Mountain of China＂ ,but coincident with the conclusion that ＂annual precipitation of the dry area in northwest is in an increase trend in recent 50 years＂ ,and the increasing rate here was much higher than that in the arid areas in northwest China,which proves that the trend of climate wetting in Yining City is apparent. The result of moving T-test shows that the mean annual temperature in Yining City increased sharply in the years of 1978,1987 and 1997,and the turning point of climate warming was in the late-1970s; the mean annual precipitation increased sharply in 1985,and the turning point of climate wetting was in the late-1980s. According to analysis on the change trend of temperature and precipitation in recent 55 years,the climate in Yining City has gotten warmer and wetter since the late-1980s,and the change has become stronger and more distinct since the late-1990s.
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期878-884,共7页
Arid Zone Research
基金
国家科技支撑计划"西北生态脆弱区适应气候变化技术示范"(2007BAC03A0604)
关键词
气候变化
气温
降水量
变化速率
伊宁市
新疆
climate change
air temperature
precipitation
increasing rate
Yining City
Xinjiang.
作者简介
夏依木拉提·艾依达尔艾力（1961-），男，新疆新源人，主要从事水文水资源分析研究工作．E-mail：ylswj233@163．com
