摘要
天然气属于清洁能源,其二氧化碳排放量比煤炭和石油都低,在中国能源需求量快速增长和降低温室气体排放量、改善能源结构的大前提下,提高天然气在能源构成中的比重,是我国近期内迈向低碳经济的桥梁。截至目前,世界天然气的资源潜力已超过先前的认识,全球至今仍具有丰富的天然气资源。分析预测结果认为,2030年中国理想的天然气消费量目标为5000×108m3,而届时国内产量大致为2500×108m3,除常规天然气外,煤层气和页岩气是最现实的非常规天然气来源;此外还需从国外进口天然气2500×108m3,世界金融危机使全球天然气需求量下降,美国页岩气的高速发展和全球范围内LNG大量投产造就了大规模利用国外天然气资源的大好时机,制约进口国外天然气的主要问题是气价,只有解决了气价问题,进口国外天然气的方针才能得到较好的实施。
Natural gas is a kind of clean energy source and its CO2 emission is rather lower than that of coal and oil.In order to keep balance between meeting the rapidly increasing demand for energy and reducing the discharge amount of greenhouse gases,the energy structure has to be optimized,so undoubtedly the percentage of natural gas is to be improved,which is the short-cut way for present China to step into a low-carbon economy.Up till now,the potential of global natural gas resources is more than what we predicted before,that is to say,there is rich natural gas resource all over the world.Our prediction results demonstrate that in China the ideal consumption of natural gas in 2030 will be 500 bcm,whereas by that time the annual domestic gas production will be about 250 bcm,to which besides conventional natural gas,coalbed methane and shale gas,the most possible unconventional gas sources,will contribute a lot,so the left half of natural gas consumption will have to turn to the imports.At present,the world demand for gas consumption is reducing due to the international financial crisis,while the U.S.shale gas is being highly developed at fast speed and numerous LNG projects have been put into production in the world.All this above provides China a good chance for importing a great sum of overseas gases,but the gas price is still the bottlenecking problem.So this paper points out that only if the problem of gas price is solved,the importing plan of overseas gases will be actually enacted.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期1-6,共6页
Natural Gas Industry
关键词
中国
提高
天然气
能源构成
比例
低碳经济
引进海外天然气
气价
China,improvement,natural gas,energy structure,percentage,low-carbon economy,importing overseas gas,gas price
作者简介
作者简介：童晓光，1935年生，中国工程院院士；原中国石油天然气集团公司国际合作局副局长；长期从事石油天然气地质勘探研究和管理工作。地址：（100034）北京市西城区阜成门北大街6号-1。
