摘要
由于战场情况的复杂,毁伤形式的多样,直接评定港口装卸作业系统的毁伤概率有很大困难。分析了装卸作业系统毁伤程度划分的影响因素,提出了基于抢修时间和贝叶斯网络法的武器毁伤的条件概率评估方法,解决了影响因素的选取和量化问题,有一定的实际应用价值;最后结合典型的装卸作业系统进行了毁伤条件概率的分析与计算。随着未来战争中要解决问题的大型化和复杂化,如何建立适用性更强、求解效率更高的装卸作业系统毁伤概率评价模型有待于进一步研究。
Due to the complexity of war situations and the multiplicity of damage forms,it＇s very difficult to evaluate the damage probability of ports＇loading-and-unloading system.Upon the basis of analyzing the infuential factors on how to divide the damage degrees of the loading-and-unloading system,which helps solve the problems of selecting and quantifying the influential factors,put forward in the paper is an evaluation method for the conditional probability of weapon damage based upon rush-repair time and the Bayesian network,which is of certain value in its practical application.Then,the conditional probabilities of weapon damage to some practical ports＇loading-and-unloading systems are analyzed and calculated.With the problems to be solved in future wars being bigger and more complex,greater efforts have to be made to study how to establish more evaluation models for the conditional probability of weapon damage,whose applicability and solving efficiency will be better.
出处
《国防交通工程与技术》
2010年第6期39-41,59,70,共5页
Traffic Engineering and Technology for National Defence
关键词
港口
装卸作业系统
武器毁伤
条件概率
贝叶斯网络模型
port
loading-and-unloading system
weapon damage
conditional probabilities
Bayesian network
作者简介
王传义（1984-），男，参谋，军事学硕士，研究方向为交通保障wangchuanyi1984@163．com
