摘要
山东省是我国的粮食主产区,在全国粮食安全中发挥着重要作用。然而随着人口的不断增加和经济的快速发展,耕地面积却在持续减少,粮食问题日益突出,因此研究该省的土地生产潜力有着重大的现实意义。本文基于1km×1km栅格尺度的气象、土壤、耕地、遥感等数据,利用不同的模型组合来计算土地生产潜力,并对结果进行对比分析,同时研究光照、温度、水分、土壤等各限制因子对生产潜力的限制程度,可为农业粮食估产、相关土地政策制定提供科学依据。研究表明:两套模型在用于山东省土地生产潜力计算时,都是合理的,但第二套模型计算的结果与实际产量的相关性更大;山东省西南平原地区土地生产潜力较高,胶东半岛地区和中部丘陵地区较低,全省土地生产潜力开发程度不足80%,其中沿海地区和北部地区开发程度较高,西南地区和中部地区开发程度较低,存在着较大的区域差异;山东省生产潜力开发的主要限制因子是水分,其次为土壤条件,温度的限制性最小。
With the rapid growth of population and economy,the contradiction between natural resources and population has been increasingly acute,leading to a range of serious problems such as food security and environmental degradation.Food security is particularly critical for China of 22%of the global population and only 7%of the global cropland.It is therefore critical to utilize land resources in a rational and effective manner,and to fully exploit cropland productive potential in Shandong Province,one of China＇s major grain production areas.This plays an important role in ensuring national food security.However,with growing population of the province,the quantity as well as quality of cropland has continued to decline.In this study,the cropland productive potential in Shandong Province was calculated based on meteorological,soil,cropland,and remote sensing data with a variety of models.Subsequently,we analyzed the results from each model,and made an attempt to investigate the limiting factors of the cropland productivity potential,such as illumination,temperature,water,and soil.Results showed that overall the two models under investigation were reliable for estimating the cropland productivity potential in Shandong Province, but the results from model 2 had higher correlation with actual yield.As for spatial distribution, higher cropland potential productivity generally occurred in southwestern areas.Lower cropland potential productivity was observed across northeastern and middle portions.It was found that the development level of the cropland productivity potential of the entire province was generally smaller than 80%.However,there were large regional differences,with exhibiting that coastal and northern areas had higher development levels,whereas southwestern and central areas showed lower ones.It is suggested that the agricultural inputs in southwestern regions and central areas be increased in the future,great efforts be made to improve agricultural management levels and agricultural technology of these areas,and the land production potential be improved greatly. Amongst all the limiting factors,water showed the highest limitation on cropland productivity potential,followed by soil and temperature across the study area;therefore it is of importance to further strengthen water resources protection and improve the efficiency of utilization.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第11期2165-2171,共7页
Resources Science
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目之主题一:"耕地资源和耕地产粮能力监测与预警"(编号:KSCX1-YW-09-01)
关键词
山东省
耕地
生产潜力
机制法模型
限制因子
Shandong Province； Cropland； Potential productivity； Mechanism； Model； Limiting factors
作者简介
程传周，男，山东人，硕士生，主要从事GIs开发，农业遥感等研究。E—mail：chengcz@lreis.ac
通讯作者：杨小唤，E-mail：yangxh@lreis．ac．121113521312781
