摘要
利用宁夏山区8个县站降水资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)比较分析了宁夏山区近38 a(1971-2008年)的各月干旱指数,并分析全年、月度干旱的站次比和干旱强度的年际变化。研究结果表明,宁夏山区年季干旱强度呈现降低趋势,但干旱发生频率和干旱面积增加,特别是2000年之后干旱频率和站次比呈增加趋势;宁夏山区以轻旱-中旱为主,特大干旱发生相对较少,近5 a来山区各县发生区域性干旱频率增加较明显;春旱和秋旱有加重的趋势,而夏旱和冬旱发生少,但春、夏、秋连旱在2000年之后发生频率和涉及的区域呈现增加的趋势;在当前气候变化背景下,宁夏山区干旱对农业生产的不利影响有加重的趋势。
Using the precipitation data of weather stations about 8 counties in the mountain area of Ningxia,the standardized precipitation index（SPI） was applied as drought index to analyze monthly drought index of nearly 38 years（1971-2008） and inter-annual variations of the ratio of drought occurring stations and drought intensities in the whole year and different seasons.The results showed,（i） Intensity of drought in the mountain area of Ningxia showed a lower trend but the frequency of drought and drought area increased,especially after the year of 2000 and the station attained during drought frequency tended to increase;（ii） The mainly drought is mild-medium drought,but severe drought occurred relatively rare.Occurrence of regional drought increased obviously in recent 5 years;（iii） The trend has shown that the drought was aggravated in Spring and Autumn,but less occurred in summer and winter.However,the frequency and the areas of continuous drought occurrence during spring,summer and autumn showed an increasing trend after 2000;（iv） According to the law of drought evolution in the mountain area of Ningxia,in the current context of climate change,the negative impact of drought on agricultural production will be severe in the mountain area of Ningxia.
出处
《西北农业学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期101-106,共6页
Acta Agriculturae Boreali-occidentalis Sinica
基金
科技部社会公益资助项目(2005DIB3J103)
关键词
标准化降水指数(SPI)
季节性干旱
宁夏山区
Standardized precipitation index（SPI）
Seasonal Drought
Mountain area of Ningxia
作者简介
马国飞，男，工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象方面的研究。E—mail：nqkysmgf@163．com
