摘要
利用喀什地区1951-2008年的月平均气温、降水资料，用经验函数拟合法和小波分析法对喀什地区的月平均气温和降水的变化趋势和周期变化进行了分析研究。在趋势分析中发现，喀什地区的月平均气温和降水已呈现出较明显的升高和增加趋势。近58a年平均气温增加了1．3℃，主要在4-10月的冬半年增温较明显，并呈现冬暖夏凉的现象；年降水量增加了0．94mm，且降水量异常主要表现为降水异常偏多的情况。喀什地区年平均气温距平在20世纪60年代末前呈降低趋势，60年代末后呈上升趋势；年降水量距平在50年代末前呈减少趋势，50年代末后呈增加趋势。月平均气温距平近58a存在93．5月（7．79a）的主周期，月降水量距平存在88．3月（7．35a）的主周期；喀什地区年平均气温距平在2009年后将处于偏低期，年降水量距平在2010年后处于偏高期。
Basing on monthly mean temperature and precipitation data in Kashgar from 1951 to 2008, the tendency and period variation have been analyzed with the experience function fitting and wavelet analysis methods. The results show that： in Kashgar, the trend of the monthly mean temperature rises obviously and precipitation increases obviously. Annual temperature increases 1.3 ~C in 58 a, tem- perature rises obviously in winter half year from April to October, and it＇ s warm in winter and cool in summer ; annual precipitation increases 0.94 ram, and is abnormally more than the past ; annual temperature anomaly has a reduce trend before the end of 1960s, and has an increase trend later; annual precipitation anomaly has a reduce trend before the end of 1950s, and has an increase trend later. In last 58 years, the main cycle of monthly mean temperature anomaly is 93.5 months （7.79 a）, monthly precipitation anomaly is 88.3 months （7.35 a） ; annual temperature anomaly is at lower time after 2009, annual precipitation anomaly is at higher time after 2010.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2010年第B09期11-16,共6页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
作者简介
郑红莲（1976-），女，湖南宁乡人，工程师，硕士，主要从事军事气象水文、天气预报等方面的研究．E-mail：azheng919@sina．com
