摘要
理论上看,在保证政策独立性的约束条件下,任意给定资本流动性,可以找到与之对应的使该国中间汇率制可持续的汇率波动的弹性空间。一旦这一弹性空间被确定,中间汇率制将可兼备固定汇率制和浮动汇率制的优点。到目前为止,几乎没有看到在克鲁格曼"三元悖论"理论框架下定量分析或测度汇率波动弹性空间的研究成果。以人民币汇率波动弹性空间为研究对象的实证研究表明,将汇率日波动幅度限制由0.3%扩大至0.5%是合理的、必要的。从现有数据来看,0.5%的日波幅限制就是近似的现阶段的汇率波动弹性空间,即现阶段将汇率日波动幅度限制在0.5%的水平基本合理、够用,汇率的弹性良好。
Theoretically, under the restricted condition of keeping the independency of policies, when given certain capital flow, the corresponding elasticity of exchange rate volatility which makes the intermediate exchange rate regime sustainable can be found. Once the elastic space of exchange rate volatility is decided scientifically, the intermediate exchange rate regime can have the advantage of both fixed exchange rate regime and floating exchange rate regime. Up to now, there＇ s scarcely any research achievement on quantitatively analyzing or measuring elastic space of exchange rate volatility under the theoretical framework of Paul Krugman＇s ＂the Impossible Trinity＂. Our empirical study with the elasticity of RMB exchange rate volatility as the research subject shows that： 1. broadening the elastic space of RMB exchange rate volatihty from 0.3% to 0.5% is rational and necessary. 2. Current daily band limit （0.5%） is approximately the elastic space of RMB exchange rate volatility at the present stage, that is, current daily band limit is both rational and adequate at the present stage on the whole.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期41-54,共14页
Economic Research Journal
基金
作者主持的国家自然基金项目(70973021)"国际金融危机背景下的汇率制度风险控制及汇率弹性空间研究"的阶段性成果
关键词
汇率波动弹性空间
评估方法
脉冲响应函数
方差分解
Elastic Space of Exchange Rate Volatility
Evaluation Technique
Impulse Response Function
Variance Decomposition
作者简介
黄志刚：电子信箱：hpopo@163．com
