摘要
基于构建的CWARMEM模型实证分析了三种可能的农村劳动力跨区域流动情景对主要流入省区和流出省区的粮食供求均衡格局的影响效应。结果表明:随着中国区域经济发展差异的进一步凸现,农村劳动力不断流入经济发达的地区,尤其是作为粮食主销区的广东、浙江、上海、北京等省市的粮食产需缺口会进一步加大,粮食供求区域失衡程度可能将会更加严重;而粮食主产区大量农村青壮年劳动力不断流出,对当地的粮食生产格局以及流入省份的粮食消费格局均产生了一定的影响。因此,在研究粮食供求区域均衡问题的同时,需要将目前中国农村劳动力跨区域流动的现实因素纳入到考虑范围之中。
The effects of three kinds of possible rural labor flow between different provinces on Chinese grain supply and demand equilibrium are analyzed by CWARMEM model. The result shows that ： as the disparity of Chinese regional economic development becomes more and more significant, particularly in economically developed and main grain consumption areas such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing and other provinces, grain production and demand gaps will further increase. Due to continuous outflow of young labor force in rural areas of many pivotal grain production areas, both consumption pattern in the inflow region and production pattern in the outflow region are affected. Thus, in investigating the regional balance of grain supply and demand, the factor of cross- regional flow of China＇s rural labors needs to be taken into account.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期101-106,共6页
Soft Science
基金
浙江省社科联研究课题(2009B19)
杭州电子科技大学校科研启动金资助项目
作者简介
梅燕（1982-），女，湖北黄冈人，讲师，研究方向为应用经济学。
