摘要
本文基于1994年1季度到2008年4季度的时间序列数据,利用两个变量不同的SVAR模型对中国的产出缺口进行估计,并依据"通货膨胀预测能力"、"与基准经济周期转折点的一致性"以及"与实时估计值的一致性"三条标准对估计结果进行评价。结果表明,SVAR02模型对通货膨胀的短期预测能力较好,而SVAR03模型的长期预测能力较好;SVAR03产出缺口的周期转折点与基准经济周期转折点更为一致;同时也具有更好的稳定性。
We estimate China＇s output gap based on the time- series data from the 1st quarter of 1994 to the 4th quarter of 2008, using two SVAR models with different variables, as well as compare and evaluate the results of the estimation under three criteria of ＂forecasting power over inflation＂, ＂consistency with the cy- clical benchmark turning point＂ and ＂the real - time consistency of the estimates＂ The historical analysis also shows that the output gap from the model SVAR03 re- fleets the reality of the situation of the Chinese economy very well.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期116-128,共13页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
中国博士后科学基金项目(20090450907)的资助
