摘要
The enumerating algorithm has been introduced into the fitting procedure of the ASR model. Based on the detailed study of 21 large earthquakes with M≥6. 8 in the Chinese Mainland,the statistical features of seismic strain release before large earthquakes have been summarized. In the mass,the strain release models can be divided into five types. The first is the DA model,in which the strain release accelerates in broader areas and decelerates in small areas around the epicenter. Approximately 38% of earthquake samples are of this type. The second is the AD model,in which the strain release decelerates in broader areas and accelerates in smaller areas around the epicenter with an occupying ratioof approximately 19%. The third is ASR,in which only accelerating strain release can be observed. Cases of this model amount to about 14%. The fourth is DSR,in which only decelerating strain release can be checked,amounting to about 24%. There is only one earthquake sample of the fifth type (LSR),which shows a linear strain release. There is a 3～6 years difference in the duration of pre-shock sequences between the accelerating and decelerating models. This means that seismic quiescence against a background of increased seismicity of small earthquakes before large earthquakes are a typical feature in general. For the DA model,the average size of critical regions for steady accelerating and decelerating strain release is about 260km to 400km and 100km to 200km,respectively,3 to 5 times and 1 to 2 times the rupture size of an earthquake of magnitude 7. 0. The AD model is the opposite of the DA model. The model parameter,m value,has good stability. The ratio of ASR is about the same for accelerating seismic strain release phenomena,no matter what the strain release models are,or how large the strain release quantity is. With regard to decelerating seismic strain release phenomena, the DA model has the most distinctive decelerating strain release characteristic and is the typical feature of seismic strain release,i. e. "decelerating in-accelerating out seismic strain model".
The enumerating algorithm has been introduced into the fitting procedure of the ASR model. Based on the detailed study of 21 large earthquakes with M≥6. 8 in the Chinese Mainland, the statistical features of seismic strain release before large earthquakes have been summarized. In the mass, the strain release models can be divided into five types. The first is the DA model, in which the strain release accelerates in broader areas and decelerates in small areas around the epicenter. Approximately 38% of earthquake samples are of this type. The second is the AD model, in which the strain release decelerates in broader areas and accelerates in smaller areas around the epicenter with an occupying ratioof approximately 19 %. The third is ASR, in which only accelerating strain release can be observed. Cases of this model amount to about 14 %. The fourth is DSR, in which only decelerating strain release can be checked, amounting to about 24 %. There is only one earthquake sample of the fifth type （LSR）, which shows a linear strain release. There is a 3-6 years difference in the duration of pre-shock sequences between the accelerating and decelerating models. This means that seismic quiescence against a background of increased seismicity of small earthquakes before large earthquakes are a typical feature in general. For the DA model, the average size of critical regions for steady accelerating and decelerating strain release is about 260km to 400km and 100km to 200km, respectively, 3 to 5 times and 1 to 2 times the rupture size of an earthquake of magnitude 7.0. The AD model is the opposite of the DA model. The model parameter, m value, has good stability. The ratio of ASR is about the same for accelerating seismic strain release phenomena, no matter what the strain release models are, or how large the strain release quantity is. With regard to decelerating seismic strain release phenomena, the DA model has the most distinctive decelerating strain release characteristic and is the typical feature of seismic strain release, i.e. ＂ decelerating in-accelerating out seismic strain model＂.
基金
supported by a grant from the National Key Technology R&D Program in the Eleventh"Five-year Plan"Period ( 20070403-2006BAC01B03-02-02)
fund for earthquake research (200708020),China
作者简介
Jiang Haikun, born in 1964, is a Ph-D and research professor of the China Earthquake Networks Center. He is engaged mainly in the research of earthquake sequences and earthquake statistics. E-mail： jianghaikun@ sohu. com
