摘要
根据风险预警体系的一般组成结构,分析了油菜市场风险预警体系的组成。从油菜籽供给与需求的因素以及宏观经济、国家政策与国际市场等影响油菜籽市场价格的因素出发,以油菜籽收购价格的波动率作为油菜产业市场风险预警的警情指标,构建了中国油菜产业市场价格风险预警的指标体系。运用BP神经网络分析1990-2007年的样本,对油菜产业风险预警进行实证研究,验证了利用BP神经网络构建的风险预警模型具有实用性和可行性,从而为中国油菜产业风险预警构建了一个有效的模型。
According to the general structure of the risk early-warning System, this article analyzes the subsystem which composes the risk early-warning in rapeseed industry. Based on the factors influence rapeseed supply and demand, macro economy, national policy, world market price and other factors affecting the poinl： of rapeseed,the risk pre-warning index system of China＇s market price of rape industry was constructed with the rapeseed purchasing price volatility as risk pre-warning indicators of the rape industry in this paper. Through the empirical study of the rape industry risk pre-warning by using BP neural network and the sample of 1990-2007, the risk pre-warning model constructed by BP neural network is proved to be practical and feasible, and an effective risk pre-warning model of China＇s rape industry is provided.
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2010年第2期29-33,共5页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
农业部"国家油菜现代产业技术体系建设专项"(nycytx-005)
湖北省软科学研究专项"湖北省油菜产业化问题研究(2009DEA030)"
关键词
油菜产业
风险预警
BP神经网络
尺度变换
rapeseed industry
the risk early-warning
BP neural network
scaling transform
作者简介
吴清华（1983-），男，硕士研究生；研究方向：农产品贸易。E-mail：wuqinghua616@163．com
