摘要
分析了安徽省2008年1—2月雪灾的发生特点,和历史上较大雪灾相比,极端最低气温明显高于历次雪灾年。利用实时雪情和灾情资料建立了安徽省单站和全省的农业经济损失定量评估模型,并进行了误差分析和试应用。评估结果表明:单站评估模型的平均相对误差在30%左右,全省评估模型为20%左右,全省评估模型的准确性较高。
The characteristics of snow disaster in Anhui Province during January-February of 2008 have been analyzed. The extreme maximum temperature during snow disaster in 2008 was obviously higher than other snow disasters in history.The separate and total models of quantitative evaluation of agricultural loss in Anhui Province have been established,using real-time data of snow condition and disaster situation.The model error has been analyzed and the trial application of the model has also been made.The average relative error of separate model was about 30%,while that of total model was about 20%.The total model was more accurate.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期85-90,共6页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
中国气象局武汉区域气象中心科技发展基金项目"长江中游区域粮食安全的气候影响评估研究"
关键词
雪灾
农业影响
定量评估
snow disaster
agricultural loss
quantitative evaluation
作者简介
姚筠，从事农业气象研究．Email：yaoyun358@126．com
