摘要
依据2001～2007年全国农村信用社农户小额信用贷款的年末余额数据,采用BASS模型对我国农村信用社农户小额信用贷款增长进行了分析。结果表明,村信用社农户小额信用贷款余额和联保贷款余额具有BASS模型的增长机理,可以用BASS模型对这2种贷款的动态增长特征进行分析和预测;2种小额信用贷款已经都处在了增长速度不断下降阶段,农户小额信用贷款增长的速度明显下降;农户小额信用贷款和联保贷款都属于内部影响或者称示范效应主导增长型金融产品。
According to the balance data of farmer＇s small credit loans of national rural credit cooperatives at the year end from 2001 to 2007,the growth of farmer＇s small credit loans of rural credit cooperatives in China was analyzed by using BASS model.The results showed that the farmer＇s small credit loan balance of villages and cooperative loan balance had the increasing mechanism of BASS model.The dynamic growth characteristics of the two kinds of loans could be analyzed and predicted by using BASS model.The two kinds of loans were both in the stages of decreasing growth rate continuously.The growth rate of farmer＇s small credit loans decreased obviously.The farmer＇s small credit loans and cooperative loan guided the increasing financial products because the inner effects and demonstration effects.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第8期4259-4261,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
农信社
农户小额信用贷款
BASS模型
增长分析
预测
Rural credit cooperatives
Farmer＇s small credit loans
BASS model
Growth analysis
Forecast
作者简介
刘迎洲（1964-），男，陕西泾阳人，博士，副教授，从事计量经济学研究。
通讯作者，硕士研究生，E-mail：zhouandfrank@yahoo．cn。
