摘要
利用第一手的农户调查数据,采用有序Probit模型,从农户特征、村集体特征、候选人特征和社会资本四个方面来分析影响农村居民投票选举意愿的因素的方向和强度。研究结果表明:①农户自身特征中的投票选举面貌、家人是否在村办企业工作这二个变量对农户投票选举参与意愿在统计上有显著的正向影响;而年龄、文化程度、是否有非农就业、是否曾经担任过干部这四个变量在统计上不显著。②村集体特征中仅有是否有过过往纠纷这一变量表现出对农户投票选举参与意愿有统计上的显著影响;有无投票误工补贴、公共服务水平、对上届村干部的工作满意程度这三个变量对农村居民投票选举参与意愿的影响均不显著;③竞选规范程度、候选人特征这二个变量表现出对农户投票选举参与意愿有统计上的显著影响,竞选激烈程度、自家人有无参加候选人提名、有无拉票行为以及乡镇政府介入与否这四个变量对农村居民投票选举参与意愿的影响不显著;④是否参与经济组织、家里是否有人当干部这二个社会资本变量对农村居民投票选举参与意愿的影响均不显著。
This paper used the investigation data of rural households in 30 villages of 5 counties in Nanjing, adopted the order Probit model, verified from the Household Characteristics, Village Characteristics, Candidate Characteristics, and got the direction and the strength of the factors. The results showed： （1）Household Characteristics： Party Members and Village Enterprises had a significantly positive effect on the Practical Enthusiasm and Willingness of Political Participation; while Village Cadres, Age of Householder, Education Level, Non-Agricultural Employment had no. （2）Village Characteristics： Bygone Disputes had a significantly positive effect on the Practical Enthusiasm and Willingness of Political Participation; while Subsidy of Missed Working Time, Public Service, Satisfaction of the Work by Village Cadres had no. （3）Candidate Characteristics： Standard of Election Campaign, Candidate Characteristics had a significantly positive effect, while Intensity of Election Campaign, Nomination of Candidate, Canvass Behavior, Intervention of Government had no. （4）Social Capital： The Social Capital and Posses Cadres had no significant influence on the Willingness of Political Participation.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第23期528-533,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目"农村居民政治参与的影响因素研究"(07SJD790057)
作者简介
第一作者简介：杨风祥，男，1959年出生，江苏南京人，金陵科技学院商学院副教授。研究方向为农村发展。通信地址：211169金陵科技学院商学院，Emaihzhaoyqing@163．com。
