摘要
利用概率分布理论和中国近46年逐日最高、最低温度资料,对中国近46年来高温、低温破纪录事件频次和强度的时空分布特征进行了统计分析.结果表明:1976—2005年以来,中国实际检测年均发生高温破纪录事件频次多于理论值2.5次左右,而低温破纪录事件则少于理论值约4.5次,这与全球增暖趋势相一致.高温破纪录事件多发生于中国西北、华北、东北和青藏高原一带,低温破纪录事件则相反,在这些地方明显偏少;在温度破纪录事件年发生频次相对趋势上,中国大部地区高温破纪录事件频次有一定程度的增加而低温破纪录事件呈现普遍减少趋势;对于温度破纪录事件强度趋势而言,高温破纪录事件强度在中国高纬度地区略有增强而低温破纪录事件强度在高纬度地区及新疆、青藏高原则有一定的缓和,但在中国南部大部地区却呈现较明显的增强趋势.此外,研究结果还表明,高温、低温破纪录事件年发生频次与太平洋暖池指数显著相关.
Based on the theory of probability distribution of record-breaking events and daily high/low observational temperature data in China form 1960 to 2005, the spatial-temporal characteristics of record-breaking temperature are investigated. We found that the annual mean frequency of record-breaking high temperature is about 2.5 times greater than normal in 1976—2005, while for record-breaking low temperature is 4.5 times less. Record-breaking high temperature is obviously more than normal in Northwest, North China, Northeast and Tibet, while the record-breaking low temperature is obviously less than normal there. As to the relative trend of record-breaking temperature events, the record-breaking high temperature somewhat increases in most parts of China, but the record-breaking low temperature become less and less all over China. For the development trend of strength, the record-breaking high temperature events, have somet enhancement in high latitude areas of China, but the record-breaking low temperature events have no change or only eventually become weakening in this area and also in XinJiang and Tibet. It should to be payed attention that the strength of record-breaking low temperature events becomes obviously enhanced in south China. In studying the relationship of annual frequency of record-breaking high/low temperature events and pacific warm pool index, we found that there are significant correlations between them for most parts of China.
出处
《物理学报》
SCIE
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第11期8107-8115,共9页
Acta Physica Sinica
基金
科技部支撑项目(批准号:2007BAC29B01和2007BAC03A01)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(批准号:GYHY200806005)资助的课题~~
关键词
破纪录事件
气候变化
极端事件
中国气候
record-breaking temperature events
climate change
extreme events
climate of China
作者简介
通讯联系人．E-mail：fenggl@cma．gov．cn
