摘要
研究了全国卫生陶瓷进出口趋势的预测模型。将灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫模型结合,构建了灰色马尔可夫预测模型。按特定的状态划分方法,先用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测,再用马尔可夫模型对预测结果进行优化,使预测精度大大提高。利用该方法对全国卫生陶瓷进出口趋势进行了预测,给出了未来几年的全国卫生陶瓷进出口量和进出口金额的预测结果。
Research on the ForecastingModel of import and export of sanitary ceramics in China trend. Grey GM （1,1） model and the model with Markov, Markov Construction of grey prediction model. On the status of a particular method to use grey GM （1,1） model projections, and then Markov model to forecast the results optimized, so that prediction accuracy greatly enhanced, the use of the method of import and export of sanitary ceramics in China had forecast, and gives the 2006 to 2010 of import and export of sanitary ceramics in China.
出处
《中国陶瓷》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第11期52-53,75,共3页
China Ceramics
