摘要
采用1980—2007年我国纺织品服装出口数据,利用单位根检验、协整分析和Granger方法对纺织品服装出口对于我国宏观经济增长的作用作了定量分析,表明纺织品服装出口对于我国GDP的增长具有明显的协整关系,纺织品服装出口是GDP增长的格兰杰原因,并且对于宏观经济的增长具有突出的拉动作用。随着加入世贸组织,在全球经济一体化形势下,中国纺织品服装的竞争力继续得到提高,年平均贡献率达到31.79%,说明在我国进入工业化中期的历史阶段,纺织品服装出口对于宏观经济的作用不但没有减弱,反而得到巩固。
Over the past three decades of opening up and reform, China＇ s textile and apparel exports have witnessed a rapid growth. Especially starting from 2000, China＇ s textile competitiveness and share in the international market have been enhanced greatly. The article, based on the data of 1980-2007 China＇s textile and apparel exports, makes a quantitative analysis of the effect of textile and garment exports on China＇s macro-economic growth. Methodologies of Unit Root Test, Co-integration Analysis and Granger are adopted. The conclusion is there is an obvious co-integration relationship between textile and apparel exports and China＇s GDP growth. In other words, textile and garment exports are a driving pull degree for China＇s macroeconomic growth.
出处
《毛纺科技》
CAS
北大核心
2009年第8期50-55,共6页
Wool Textile Journal
作者简介
张庆辉，博士研究生，主要从事纺织产业经济研究。E-mail：zhangqh@m1．ctei．gov．cn。
