摘要
采用层次分析法(AHP)和案例分析相结合的方法,建立了基于事故后果评价的危验化学品风险评估模型。模型综合考虑了事故直接后果、次生衍生事故、以及应急救援等因素,并提出了应急救援的风险抵消作用的建模方法。利用该模型对危验化学品泄漏事故进行了风险评估,采用实际案例对评估结果进行了验证。基于该模型分析了应急救援对事故后果风险的抵消作用。研究表明:所建立的风险评估模型能较好地反映实际事故后果情况,应急救援力量对减低事故后果风险具有重要作用,在风险评估中应予充分考虑。
A risk assessment model was developed based on the analytical hierarchy process （AHP） with case studies for dangerous chemical leakage accidents. The model considers the direct loss due to the accident, derived accidents, and emergency response effects. The effect of the emergency response is modeled as a ＂loss-reducing effect＂, with quantitative risk assessments for accident cases analyzed. Comparisons between these risk assessment results and case studies show that this model satisfactorily predicts the results and that the emergency response greatly influences the accident sequence and should not be ignored in risk assessments.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第5期621-624,共4页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70601015,70833003)
关键词
风险评估
层次分析法
应急救援
risk assessment
analytical hierarchy process （AHP）
emergency response
dangerous chemicals
作者简介
张超（1983-），男（汉），河北，博士研究生。
通讯联系人：刘奕，讲师，E-mail：liuyi@tsinghua．edu．cn
