摘要
本文利用三次样条数函数和相应的样条函数光滑处理方法,结合我国13个年度的全国交通事故历史统计数据,对交通事故的三项主要统计指标进行拟合并建模,从而对道路交通事故进行预测。通过对预测结果的误差分析可知,该方法对交通事故三项主要指标的预测是有效的,为交通事故部门的未来事故预测提供了一种新的思路和方法。
Road accidents forecast is a crucial problem in traffic safety control. In order to successfully complete the trafiic safety control work, we must look for a punctuate and accurate road accident forecast method. With the priority of high - precision of cubic spline curve fitting function combined with relevant spline smoothing method, by investigation of traffic safety condition in china, a prediction systerm is set up. We put the three main statistical indicators into the model to predict traffic accidents in a short period. From the results of the analysis of the error we can see that, the forecast model based on cubic spline curve fitting function is effective for traffic accidents and it also provide a new way of thinking and method on trffic accidents forecast.
出处
《内燃机与动力装置》
2009年第2期41-44,共4页
Internal Combustion Engine & Powerplant
关键词
交通事故
预测
三次样条
延拓
Traffic - Accidents
Forecast
Cubic Spline
Curve Extension
作者简介
尹朋（1983-），山东德州人，在读研究生，主要研究方向为智能交通系统。
