摘要
提出了一套跨研制单位持续项目风险管理机制。在其风险因素识别阶段,提出了以核对表和鱼刺图为基础的基于特征-因子法的风险因素识别法;在风险量化阶段,提出了先基于模糊综合评判进行单个风险量化、后基于改进PERT方法进行风险整体量化的实现方法;在风险应对阶段,提出了基于人工神经网络和框架知识表示及推理相结合的风险应对方法,建立了混合型专家系统,以实现风险应对智能化。最后,以具体实例说明了该项技术的可行性。
A durative project risk management mechanism of inter-organizational collaboration is presented. At the period of risk factors＇ identification, an identification method based on characteristic-factor modeling technology, checklist and flow chart is put for-ward. In the period of risk quantificational management, a sort of realization method is described as following, at first, the single risk quantification can be handled by the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method; secondly, the whole risk quantification can be handled by the im- proved PERT （Program Evaluation and Review Techniques） method. In the period of risk response, a response method on the basis of ANN （Artificial Neural Networks） and frame knowledge expression and reasoning is put forward, and a mixed expert system which can make the risk response intelligent is built up. Resuits indicate that the method of risk management is feasible.
出处
《航空制造技术》
2009年第9期94-97,共4页
Aeronautical Manufacturing Technology
基金
国家863计划/CIMS主题基金项目(2002AA413710)
航空预研项目(418010701-01)
关键词
风险管理
特征-因子法
多层模糊综
合评价神经网络一专家系统
Risk management Characteristic-factor modeling technology Multiple comprehensive fuzzy evaluation Neural network-expert sys-tem
