摘要
建议对存在诸多不确定性因素的复杂岩土体边坡工程应用动态风险管理。提出边坡工程风险评估模型,即利用因子识别成果构建边坡工程风险因子的层次分析模型,建立判断矩阵并计算因子权重;根据勘察、试验指标与因子质量关系确定因子评估值,定义二者乘积为因子风险值。通过分析风险因子评估表,选择计算特定风险比率,以帮助较好理解边坡风险性质,认识风险本质及因子间联系。最后将模型应用于溪洛渡对外交通专用公路边坡的风险评估与分析,并与FLAC(快速拉格朗日法)数值计算结果比较。认为对边坡实施风险管理有一定推广价值。
Dynamic risk management is suggested to be introduced into slope engineering project which is influenced by many factors of uncertainty, especially in complex geotechnical areas. A slop project risk assessment model has been introduced here. Firstly, to establish Risk Factors AHP Model based on the study on risk factors identification and classification. Secondly, to calculate the weights of factors by judgment matrix. Thirdly, to determine assessment value of each factor according to site investigation and test indicators. Then, to define their product as risk value. By selecting risk factors, to calculate and analyze certain risk ratios in order to better understand the risk features of slope and interaction between risk factors. At the end, a slop engineering ease has been illustrated. Meanwhile, FLAC numerical calculation and monitoring records in site have confirmed the risk assessment result. Therefore, this model and analysis methods are considered to be worthy of further promotion.
出处
《地下空间与工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期390-394,412,共6页
Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering
基金
上海市重点学科建设项目资助(项目编号:B308)
长江三峡工程开发总公司溪洛渡工程建设部资助(合同编号:XLD/0703
课题名称:溪洛渡水电站专用公路典型边坡运营期风险评价及对策研究)
作者简介
张雷，男，（1967-），博士，副教授。主要从事岩土工程的数值模拟、计算方法、监测技术和风险管理。E—mail：tjugege@mail．tongji．edu．cn
