摘要
根据短期气候预测业务目前的基本现状，提出了短期气候业务预测效果评估的几种参数．使用这些参数对国家气候中心气候预测室近２０多年来全国范围月、季、年几种主要预测业务的降水距平百分率和平均气温距平的预测效果进行了初步评估．结果表明，月尺度预报中，温度预报好于降水预报；年度降水预报以对春季预报为最好；汛期降水预报水平有明显提高．
Based on the current situation of shortrange climate prediction, some parameters for assessment of forecast effectiveness are proposed. Using these parameters, the forecast results of anomalous percentage of precipitation and anomaly of mean temperature for monthly, seasonal and interannual scales during the last 20 years in NCC are evaluated. It is shown that the forecasts of temperature is better than those of precipitation for monthly scale, the forecasts of precipitation are better in spring than those in winter and summer for interannual scale, and the forecasts of precipitation for rainy season have a remarkable improvement.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第2期178-185,共8页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家"九五"重中之重项目
关键词
短期气候
预测评估法
距平相关
天气预报
异常级
Assessment Forecast score Skill score Anomaly correlation Anomalous grade
