摘要
运用交叉小波方法分析了近56 a来我国西北地区气候变化与北极涛动指数（AOI）、欧亚纬向环流指数之间的联系,讨论了西北地区冬季气温和夏季降水变化与同期AOI之间的多时间尺度相关。结果表明,AOI、西北地区降水和气温变化都存在着不同尺度的周期振荡,西北地区降水与AOI之间存在准3 a尺度的显著共振周期,而AOI与西北地区气温变化的多时间尺度相关表现为准2a、3-5 a和8-11 a左右的显著相关振荡且以8-11 a共振周期的凝聚性最强;AO对西北地区气温变化的影响比对降水的影响更显著,与其年代际尺度的相互作用有关。当冬季北极涛动处于正相位时,欧亚纬向环流偏强,西北地区冬季气温偏高。夏季西北地区降水变化与前期北极涛动指数异常密切相关,这对于西北地区夏季降水变化预测具有重要的参考意义。
The cross-wavelet transform method is adopted to study the multi-time scale correlations between the winter temperature, the summer precipitation in Northwest China and the Arctic Oscillation Index （AOI） over the same period, in order to investigate the relationships between climate change in Northwest China, the AOI, and the Eurasian zonal circulation index in recent 56 years. Results show that there are multi-time scale periodic variations in AOI, the temperature and precipitation in Northwest China with significant syntonic periods of qausi-3 a between AOI and the precipitation, while the multitime scale correlations between AOI and the temperature are quasi-2 a, 3--5 a and about 8--11 a with the strongest coherency in 8--11 a syntonic period. The influence of AO on temperature is more remarkable than that on precipitation in Northwest China for the interaction of their interdecadal variation. When the AO is in positive phase in winter, the Eurasian zonal circulation is stronger, and the temperature is higher. The fact that variation of summer precipitation in Northwest China is close related to the prior abnormal AOI is an important factor for the prediction of summer precipitation.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第6期811-818,共8页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
中国气象局气候变化研究专项(CCSF2007-24)
南京信息工程大学科研基金课题(9922)
关键词
北极涛动
西北气候
交叉小波
Arctic Oscillation
climate in Northwest China
cross-wavelet
作者简介
郭渠（1978-），男，四川仪陇人，硕士，研究方向为气候变化，guoqu510@163．com．
