摘要
根据近年来我国森林火灾统计数据显示,森林火灾造成的损失相当严重。文中首先运用灰色理论GM(1,1)模型预测我国森林火灾发生的总体趋势,结果显示我国森林火灾发生总次数及受灾面积呈现增长趋势,而重大火灾和特大火灾的总次数呈现减少的趋势。然后运用层次分析法(AHP)对影响森林火灾发生的各个因素进行分析,通过计算其综合权值,从而确定各个诱导因素的影响程度。最后,根据风险分析的结果提出一些合理的对策措施,不仅有利于对森林火灾的预防,而且可以减少因火灾造成的损失。
According to the statistical data of forest fire in China in recent years, the losses caused by forest fires are very serious. This article firstly used GM （ 1,1 ） model to forecast the trend of forest fire occurred in China. The resuits showed that the total number of forest fires and disaster area in China still showed increased trends, the number of great fire and catastrophic fire showed decreased trends. Then Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） was applied to analyze each factor which affects forest fire occurrence. By calculating its consolidated weights, the extent of its impact was determined. Finally, according to the results of risk analysis, some reasonable measurements were brought forward. This is good for the prevention of forest fire and can decrease the losses caused by fire.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
2008年第4期41-45,共5页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
作者简介
王娟（1984．7-），女，硕士研究生。
