摘要
气象参数对电力系统覆冰有着决定性的影响,由于缺乏现场有效监测数据,针对气象与覆冰之间关系的研究进展缓慢。笔者前期开发的输电线路覆冰在线监测系统可实现线路局部气象条件和线路覆冰状况的实时监测。基于现场监测数据笔者又进行了线路覆冰与局部气象因素之间关系的研究,结果表明:覆冰形成、自动脱落过程与气象条件之间关系密切,线路覆冰形成需要特定的环境条件;采用单一环境温度、湿度、风速等气象要素进行覆冰预测的可靠性差,尤其误报率过高,如采用风速进行预测误报率高达248%;采用多气象因素进行覆冰预测的准确率达到67%,误报率、漏报率分别为18%和39%;通过模糊理论进行气象因素与覆冰预测得到了理想的结果,预测准确率达到86%,误报率、漏报率仅为13%和3%。
Meteorology is the key factor in icing of power system. The study on the relation of meteorology and icing has been delayed due to the absence of field icing data. An online monitoring system of transmission line conductor icing based on GSM SMS had been developed by the authors to monitor the real-time local meteorology and the icing. In this paper, the relation of meteorology and icing was investigated based on the measured icing data. The results show that the formation and dropping of transmission line icing depend on special meteorology, the icing forecasting based on single meteorological factor, such as temperature, humidity, or wind speed, etc., is unreliable with a large error, e.g. the error is 248% when only use temperature for forecasting. The accuracy, error, and failure of forecasting are 67%, 18%, and 39% when multi-meteorological factors are used, and they are further improved to 86%, 13% and 3% when the fuzzy theory is adopted.
出处
《高压电器》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第4期289-294,共6页
High Voltage Apparatus
基金
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2006E117)
西安市科技计划项目(GG06050)
陕西省教育厅科技专项(06JK298)资助
关键词
覆冰
气象
在线监测
模糊理论
icing
meteorology
online monitoring
fuzzy theory
作者简介
黄新波（1975-），男，博士后，副教授，主要研究方向为电力系统在线监测理论与技术、无线网络传感器等。
