摘要
目的描述广州市传染性非典型肺炎早期预警监测试点的运作情况,探索并评价监测方案的敏感性和可行性。方法收集两间试点医院的监测数据并运用SPSS进行描述性统计分析,主要包括区间估计、相关分析和wilcoxon非参数检验。结果两个试点在监测期间(2003年12月至2004年1月)的发热呼吸道病例数占监测科室病例总数比例的95%容许区间(单侧)分别为(0,1.36%)和(0,0.51%),发热肺炎病例数占监测科室病例总数比例的95%容许区间(单侧)分别为(0,0.42%)和(0,0.28%);预警病例数占发热肺炎病例的12.98%,占监测科室门诊病例总数的0.20‰;预警病例从发病到隔离治疗间隔时间平均为4.8 d。发热呼吸道病例主要就诊于监测试点医院的发热门诊和内科急诊。结论以科学选择的预警监测点为基础来建立的高度敏感预警监测系统对早期控制传染性非典型肺炎的传播和蔓延有重要作用,但应与其他监测系统资源的进行整合,既可以降低系统运行成本,又能提高系统的敏感性和特异性。
Objective To describe the implementation of the trial prospective surveillance of SARS in Guangzhou, and to evaluate its sensitivity and feasibility. Method Data from the two trial hospitals was collected and the statistical analysis was done by SPSS including interval estimate, correlation analysis and wilcoxon analysis. Result From December 2003 to January 2004, as to the daily number of outpatients in sentinel clinics of the two trial hospitals, the average proportion of hectic respiratory cases were 0.74 [95% CI （0, 1.36）] and 0.36 [95% CI （0,0.51）], while that of hectic pneumonia cases were 0.27 [95% CI （0,0.42）] and 0.18 [95% CI（0,0.28）]. The proportion of indicating cases is 12.98% among hectic pneumonia cases and 0.20% among outpatients. The average interval between disease onset and treatment of indicating cases is 4.8 days. In addition, the hectic respiratory cases usually referred to the hectic outpatient clinic and the emergency physical clinic. Conclusion Establishment of active prospective surveillance on valid sites is of great importance for the SARS control and prevention. The system should cooperation with other relevant surveillance to reduce the cost and raise the sensitivity and specificity.
出处
《热带医学杂志》
CAS
2008年第6期610-612,共3页
Journal of Tropical Medicine
作者简介
秦鹏哲（1974-），男，主管医师，主要从事流行病和健康教育工作。
