摘要
根据我国都市圈内城际客运市场竞争日趋激烈的现状,采用改进的Logit模型预测通道上各种运输方式的客流分担率,选择经济性、快速性、方便性为衡量指标,并建立广义费用函数,利用极大似然估计法确定模型参数,并以北京都市圈内京津通道上各种运输方式的竞争为例说明该模型的应用方法。
According to the intensive competition of inter-city passenger traffic market in metropolitan area, an improved Logit forecasting model is adopted to forecast the sharing ratio of passenger flow in transportation corridor within metropolitan area. The paper selects the economy, rapidity and convenience as evaluation index, sets up a generalized cost function and decides the model parameters by using maximum likelihood method. The paper also expounds the application method of the model by taking the competition among each transport modes of Beijing-Tianjin corridor inside Beijing metropolitan area as example.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2008年第6期53-55,60,共4页
Railway Transport and Economy
关键词
运输通道
客流分担率
LOGIT模型
广义费用函数
transportation corridor
sharing ratio of passenger flow
Iogit model
generalized cost function
