摘要
对1980-2005年我国工业制成品与初级产品进口与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。研究表明:工业制成品进口对我国经济增长有长期稳定的促进作用,初级产品进口则有抑制作用;我国初级产品的进口更多是由工业制成品进口带动的。据此,提出了对于我国工业制成品与初级产品进口的建议。
Based on the annual data from 1980 to 2005 about the import of primary and industrial manufactured goods and GDP in China, this paper tries to analyze their effects by employing correlation analysis, unit root test, Johansen co-integration, Granger causality, error correction model, impulse responses and variance decomposition analysis methods. The empirical results show that industrial manufactured goods have a long-term positive effect upon economic growth while primary goods do the opposite; the leading force of the import of primary goods is the import of industrial manufactured goods but not economic growth. Accordingly, this paper puts forward advices on the import of primary and industrial manufactured goods.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第6期27-32,38,共7页
Journal of International Trade
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目“对外直接投资贸易效应与政策含义”(2007ZRB01493)的阶段性成果
关键词
工业制成品
初级产品
经济增长
进口贸易
Industrial manufactured goods
Primary goods
Economic growth
Import trade
作者简介
李兵：山东经济学院国贸学院 250014 电子信箱：libingchina@sina.com。
