摘要
针对电力市场运营中存在的不确定因素,该文提出一种基于三点估计的概率最优潮流算法。这种算法采用随机变量的高阶矩构造估计点,通过随机变量与目标函数之间的确定性关系对目标函数进行点估计,得到目标函数的统计特征值。文中所提出的算法能方便地将概率问题转化为确定性问题处理,因此可利用电力系统中已有的计算资源,提高计算效率。IEEE-30和118节点系统算例表明,和蒙特卡罗仿真及两点估计法相比,基于三点估计法的概率最优潮流分析计算量小,结果准确,得到的概率信息能更全面地反映电力市场的运行状况。
A three-point estimate method to solve the probabilistically optimal power flow for electricity market with uncertain factors was proposed in this paper. The high-order moments of stochastic variables to construct the estimate points and the certain relations between stochastic variables and objective function were utilized to determine the estimate value of objective function. By this method the probabilistic problems can be handled with the same routines as those corresponding to deterministic problems while alleviating the computational burden. Numerical results of IEEE 30-bus and 118-bus systems show that comparing with Monte Carlo simulation and two-point estimate method, the three-point estimate method provides better performance in dealing with probabilistic optimal power problems. Probabilistic information obtained by this method is helpful to reveal the actual status in electricity market.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第16期28-33,共6页
Proceedings of the CSEE
关键词
点估计法
概率最优潮流
蒙特卡罗仿真
电力市场
point estimate method
probabilistically optimal power flow
Monte Carlo simulation
electricity market
作者简介
潘炜（1973-），男，博士研究生，研究方向为电力系统分析与运行控制，panway2004@163．com。
刘文颖（1955-），女，教授，从事电力系统分析与运行控制及电力系统智能调度研究工作。
杨以涵（1927-），男，博士生导师，研究方向为电力系统运行分析与控制、人工智能在电力系统中的应用、小电流接地和光学互感器等。
