摘要
为了更好地理解国际贸易与国际物流的关系,制定出合适的协同发展战略,本文选取国际贸易与国际物流之间的关系作为研究对象进行了实证分析。首先,结合指标的合理性和数据的可得性选取了分析变量;在此基础上利用时间序列数据,运用Granger因果检验的方法对国际贸易和国际物流之间的关系进行了研究,并得出结论:我国的国际贸易与物流存在着反馈性的因果关系;其中,物流对贸易的促进作用比贸易对物流的促进作用要稍大一些。
In order to better understand the relationship between international trade and international logistics and work out proper development strategies, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between international trade and international logistics. Firstly, the analysis vari- ables are chosen referred to the rationality of the indicators and the availability of the data. Further more, the conclusion is based on research of relationship between international trade and international logistics with Granger causes and effects examinatiqn using the time series data. In China, international trade and logistics interact as both cause and effect, while trade has more positive reaction than logistics does.
基金
对外经济贸易大学"十五""211工程"课题:"北京市国际贸易与国际物流协同发展的策略研究"的研究成果之一
作者简介
杨长春（1964-），男．湖北京山人．对外经济贸易大学教授、博导。
